Ukraine-Russia war: Is Russia's invasion going according to plan?

Ukraine-Russia crisis: Russia has launched an offensive in Ukraine since Thursday (February 24). Russian troops entered Ukraine from the north, south and east, and there were reports of Russian missile strikes on major cities and army bases.

 

Ukraine-Russia war: Is Russia's invasion going according to plan?

 

 

Global New News Desk -  
History has shown that starting a war is not as easy as ending it. This is exactly what happened with the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Russian President Vladimir Putin's campaign in Ukraine could have similar consequences.

 

There is an old saying that after the first confrontation with the enemy, the military plan never goes according to plan. That is likely to be the case with the Russian military in Ukraine.

 

Ed Arnold, a European security expert at the Royal United Services Institute (Russia), described Russia's first attack as "not as shocking" and "slower than expected".

 

He explained a few reasons for this. The principle of military strikes, he says, is usually "a huge push in the beginning." Russia has mobilized between 1.5 million and 190,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, but has not yet deployed all of them.

 

 

 

 

 

Changed situation for Russia?

The reason for keeping some troops in the initial attack of the war is probably because Russia wants to keep these troops ready for use in the next phase of their attack. Security expert Ed Arnold says it is natural for troops to be protected when they change their original plans for war.

 

Western officials estimate that Russia used about half of the troops it had gathered on the border in the early stages of the offensive. The initial stage of their attack was somewhat complicated as they were attacking from different directions.

Also, Russia did not carry out its shelling and air strikes as vigorously as was expected. However, Mr. Arnold says: "The important thing is that they are facing strong resistance from Ukraine - which I don't think Russia expected."

However, Ed Arnold believes that Russia's warlords will soon change their plans to deal with a changed situation or disaster.

 

Former British Army Commander-in-Chief General Sir Richard Barnes says it still looks like the Russians will "succeed in achieving their military goals quite quickly."

 

 

 

 

Obstacles to the goal

General Barons says it is clear that the primary purpose of the Russian attack is to "strike down Ukraine's military structure, dismantle it, remove the country's central government, and annex parts of Ukraine to greater Russia."

 

Judging by these objectives, Russia has achieved some of its goals. Russia has advanced from the south of Ukraine. The Russian military has now formed a ground force to move from Crimea to Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded Crimea.

 

Ed Arnold describes it as a "medium-sized purpose." But from here, he says, all Russia can do is encircle the Ukrainian army, which is fighting to resist in the east.

Some of Ukraine's most experienced troops have been deployed on the battlefield in the area, where they have been fighting Russian-backed separatists for the past eight years.

 

So far, Russian efforts to cross the border from the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk seem to have been thwarted. But if they are surrounded, it will be very difficult for them to fight. Arnold thinks.

 

The fact is that a significant portion of Ukraine's armed forces are already at war and it will be difficult for them to re-deploy.

 

Russia has also made great strides towards Kyiv. Russia's other main goal is to capture the capital. One of the main reasons, of course, is that Kiev is the main center of government and that is where the resistance comes from.

 

President Putin wants to overthrow the democratically elected President Zelensky's government and establish a ruling group of his own choosing and his supporters there. Russia's Ed Arnold says "so if Russia cannot occupy Kyiv, Russia will fail to achieve its real goal."

 

Now the question is, how easy will it be? It looks like Russian forces are trying to encircle the city. But the more they try to get into Kiev, the harder it is to resist.

 

 

 

Fighting in the city - for whom?

Fighting within the city is often seen as a convenient position for the resistance forces. Because it became very difficult for the invading troops to conduct street battles. Different buildings there help to create a resistant location.

 

The citizens of the city also play a role in building resistance. Because they become potential targets. As a result, it is very difficult to fight inside the city and there is a danger that it will become very bloody. The task of advancing troops there is much more difficult and requires a much larger number of troops to fight in the city.

 

A norm between eastern and western Ukraine the country's Dnipropetrovsk River has created a barrier. Ed Arnold describes the river as a potential obstacle for Russian forces.

 

Mr. Arnold says that if Russia were to occupy Kyiv and the rest of the country, it would not be necessary for Russian forces to fight in the west of the country. He says President Putin may hope that if his forces can capture Kyiv and defeat the Ukrainian army, Ukraine's resistance will be shattered.

 

 

'Accounts may be proved wrong'

Russia's 190,000 troops may be enough to carry out an offensive, but military experts doubt it will be enough to occupy Europe's second-largest country.

 

General Baroness, who was the British military commander in Iraq, said: "If Mr Putin had planned to occupy the whole of Ukraine with about 1.5 million troops, that would be possible only if the people of the country agreed."

 

He says that although a section of the population in eastern Ukraine is pro-Russian, it would be very difficult for a Russian-backed government to run the country if the public opinion of the country's nearly 40 million people is against Russia.

 

General Barnes thinks that even if Russia deploys enough troops to achieve its goal of defeating Ukraine's military in the end, it will still have to deal with a "very determined rebellion."

 

If President Putin continues his campaign in the hope of controlling the whole of Ukraine, General Barons says, "it could turn out to be a major setback for him."